For students and parents · Year 12, summer to autumn
Predicted grades: how they are set and what they are for
Predicted grades are the grades a school or college believes a student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances, added by the teacher who writes the UCAS reference. UCAS asks schools to make them aspirational but based on evidence of the student’s work, and universities use them, alongside everything else in the application, to decide whether to make an offer.
Who sets predicted grades, and how?
The school or college sets them, usually from the subject teachers’ judgement of a student’s work over Year 12: classwork, tests and end-of-year or mock exams. The teacher referee adds them to the UCAS application for every qualification not yet finished, so they are fixed before the application is sent, which for many students is in the autumn of Year 13.
UCAS describes a predicted grade as the grade a school believes the student is likely to achieve in positive circumstances, and asks that predictions be aspirational but based on demonstrable evidence of performance. So a prediction is meant to be ambitious without being a guess.
How do universities use them?
Universities make most offers before results are known, so predicted grades are one of the main pieces of evidence they have about academic ability, alongside GCSE results, the reference and the personal statement. Each university uses them in its own way: some look closely at whether the predictions meet the entry requirements, others weigh them against admissions tests or interviews.
It follows that it is worth applying to a range of courses with entry requirements around the predictions, including one or two you would expect to get into on them.
What if you think a prediction is too low?
Talk to the subject teacher, calmly and early, and ask what evidence the prediction is based on and what would change it. Because predictions follow the evidence, the useful answer is usually a piece of work: a stronger result in the next test or mock, or marked past papers that show a higher level. The mock exams guide explains how mock grades are set, and the grade calculator shows what a past paper mark would have got on each year’s real boundaries.
Predictions are meant to follow the evidence, and a prediction far above what a student then achieves can leave them without a place in August, so an honest prediction is in the student’s interest too.
Where to check
Checked against these on . The rules change from year to year, so the pages above are the ones to trust if anything here disagrees with them.
Common questions
Who decides predicted grades?
The school or college, usually from subject teachers’ judgement of the student’s work in Year 12. The teacher who writes the UCAS reference adds them to the application.
Can predicted grades be changed?
Ask the school before the application is sent. Predictions are meant to follow the evidence of a student’s work, so ask the subject teacher what evidence the prediction rests on and what would change it.
Do universities make offers on predicted grades?
Yes, most offers are made before results are known, so predicted grades are one of the main pieces of evidence universities use, alongside GCSEs, the reference and the personal statement.
What happens if you miss your predicted grades?
If the grades do not meet the conditions of your offers, the university may still confirm the place, or you can look for a place through Clearing. The results day and Clearing guides cover what to do.